How Did The "Experts" Do with their 2015 Predictions?


In a word, Lousy. The Globe and Mail, to their credit, ran an article on December 18 that compared predictions made by top Canadian economists to what actually happened. Turns out they were all very, very wrong. These predictions were made by the head economists at Royal Bank, C.I.B.C World Markets, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Scotia Bank, National Bank, TD Bank.

None of the highly paid economists predicted the crash in oil prices, the steep decline in the value of the Canadian dollar, the weak Candian G.D.P numbers, the decrease in Canadian interest rates, and the roughly 10% loss for the Canadian stock market.

I’ve mentioned this before, but it’s worth mentioning again:

It is impossible to consistently and accurately predict the world economy. The economy is too big, too complicated and too unpredictable. Humans may have a need to think the unpredictable is predictable, but that doesn’t make it true.

Do yourself a favour and stop listening to anyone who wants to tell you where interest rates, or the price of gold, or the stock market is going. They are guessing because it just isn’t possible to know these things.

Here’s the article if you’d like to read it yourself.

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